Investing in industrial warehouse ventures has traditionally been seen as a dependable and profitable option in real estate. However, recent market trends have sparked questions about the practicality of these investments, especially considering factors like oversupply and rising interest rates.

In this article, we will look into the reasons why industrial warehouse investments might not be the best choice for EB-5 investors, and explore safer options.

The Oversupply Issue

Before taking a closer look at industrial warehouses as an EB-5 investment option, investors must first understand the dynamics of the market. The last ten years have seen a sharp rise in the need for warehouse spaces, due to the surge in e-commerce, shifts in consumer habits, and streamlined supply chains. This surge attracted a wave of investors, causing a significant build-out of warehouse properties and leading to an excess in available spaces

Market Saturation and Vulnerability

Significant warehouse expansion in major urban logistics centers initially satisfied the growing demand. However, this expansion has then led to market saturation. The abundance of warehouse space has intensified the competition for leasing tenants, causing a decline in rental prices and compressing investors’ profit margins.

By the second quarter of 2023, the vacancy rates were rising, with distribution firms increasingly subletting space, marking the highest sublease rates seen in recent years. “The market is recalibrating, with vacancy expected to slightly rise over the next few quarters as construction deliveries begin to outpace net absorption, reversing the trend of the last two years,” stated a Newmark report.

The glut in warehouse spaces makes the industry vulnerable to economic downturns. In periods of financial instability, the demand for warehousing and distribution can fall, leading to unoccupied buildings and straining the returns for investors.

EB-5 investors need to pay attention to the fact that a sector’s past growth doesn’t guarantee future success, especially when such growth has caused an oversupply.

The Tenant Diversification Issue

The reliance of warehouse investments on particular sectors or key tenants poses a high degree of concentrated risk. If a significant tenant faces economic difficulties or changes their operational approach, it could affect the EB 5 investment’s success.

Warehouses are often built following a market analysis that identifies potential tenants nearby. Financial challenges faced by these tenants can turn the warehouse ineffective. The safest real estate investments have a diverse portfolio of tenants and buyers.

The Effects of Higher Borrowing Costs

The development of industrial warehouses is influenced by interest rates, affecting both demand for warehouse space and the overall project costs. Financing is a common approach for purchasing materials and equipment, and as interest rates rise, so do these expenses, potentially affecting the budget for new warehouse projects.

The value of warehouse properties and the potential lease rates are also affected by fluctuations in interest rates. With higher interest rates, tenants who rely on borrowing for their operations face increased expenses, which may affect their capacity to afford higher lease payments.

In scenarios where rising interest rates affect both the costs and revenues of a project, EB5 investors must reassess the project’s profitability.

Financial Uncertainty

Changes in the global economy, like trade disputes and supply chain disruptions, can impact the industrial warehouse industry. EB-5 investors must also evaluate how these macroeconomic trends could affect their investments.

As explained by The Wall Street Journal in a logistics report published in 2023, retailers have recently decelerated their warehouse leasing due to a decline in the pandemic-induced online shopping boom and the challenges posed by inflation.

Amazon.com Inc., which had expanded its fulfillment network size by double within two years during the pandemic’s peak, started to pull back on its logistics growth, choosing to sublease some of its warehouse spaces.

Adrian Ponsen, the national director of U.S. industrial market analytics at CoStar, observed: “Developers’ profit margins are basically coming under pressure from both sides. At the same time that the hard costs to build these warehouses is rising, the prices that developers think they can ultimately sell them for is beginning to decline.”

The first nine months of 2023 saw industrial property construction initiations plummet by 48% compared to the same timeframe in 2022, marking the steepest fall for that period since 2009. This decline poses big challenges for investors like Blackstone, whose industrial real estate holdings make up a large part of their property portfolio.

The Uncertainty in EB-5 Job Creation

EB-5 projects within the industrial warehouse sector often depend on generating employment through their operations. Creating jobs through operational activities is far less predictable than through construction efforts. In the case of construction-generated jobs, the developer only needs to allocate the planned budget toward construction activities to fulfill the EB-5 job creation requirement. However, job creation based on operational success depends on meeting or surpassing expected revenues.

During periods of economic decline, a project might fall short of its expected revenue, failing to produce the initially planned jobs. This discrepancy highlights the risky nature of depending on operational jobs to meet the EB-5 program’s job creation criteria.

Exploring Safer EB-5 Real Estate Investment Options

The revenue and market valuation of warehouse properties heavily depend on the current economic conditions. EB-5 investors, who usually expect short-term returns and full repayment of their investment, face difficulties during economic downturns. Selling or refinancing property becomes hard in a weak market, which may extend investment periods or result in capital losses. These types of investments carry significant risks for EB-5 investors due to their cyclical nature.

EB-5 real estate projects built by reliable developers, however, offer a more secure investment pathway compared to cyclical options. With the right approach to EB-5 project selection, investors can benefit from diligent planning, stringent oversight, and proven track records. By focusing on steady construction-based job creation rather than being heavily influenced by economic cycles, these projects mitigate both financial and immigration risks EB5 investors might face.

Investing in the right EB-5 project not only offers the potential for timely financial returns but also presents a faster and smoother process toward obtaining a Green Card in the United States, with the subsequent opportunity to apply for citizenship.

For further insights into the EB-5 process, book a call with our team and discover which real estate investments are most suited to your specific needs and preferences.